Es una lástima que no estés conmigo
cuando miro el reloj y son las dos
y acabo la entrada de mi blog
y estiro las piernas como todas las noches
y sacudo los hombros para aflojar la espalda
y me doblo los dedos y les saco mentiras.

Es una lástima que no estés conmigo
cuando miro el reloj y son las tres
y soy una máquina que calcula intereses
o dos manos que saltan sobre cuarenta teclas
o un oído que escucha como ladran las Bolsas
o un tipo que hace números y les saca verdades.

Es una lástima que no estés conmigo
cuando miro el reloj y son las cuatro.
Podrías acercarte por sorpresa
y decirme “¿qué tal?” y quedaríamos
yo con la mancha roja de tus labios
y tú convertida en sirena….

de Manuel Gandarias Carmona Publicado en Nube



Spain Is Surging. Germany Is Tanking. This Is What It All Means.

Joe Weisenthal | Jun. 22, 2012, 8:25 AM | 1,349 |
Business Insider

If you want to watch an interesting proxy for the changing dynamics in Europe, just watch the Spanish market vs. the German market.

Here we represent it via EWP (The Spain ETF) vs. the EWG (the German ETF).



For several days now, Spain has been pushing higher against Germany.

And today, Spain is up 1% while Germany is down 1%.

This tell you a lot.

First of all, Germany’s economy, as we’ve been writing about is cracking (finally) as all of its export markets are deteriorating.

More importantly, there’s a growing sense that Germany is going to be on the hook, in some way or another, for the debts of its peers.

So even if the economy deteriorates, the Spanish market benefits from the fact that it may not go completely bust.

Watch this space.

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de Manuel Gandarias Carmona Publicado en Nube


¡Oh my God, el Big Bang!

Aquel verano fue la vida.
La reconocí en verano
y fue la vida.
Olores y sabores explotando
y las lentas y altas gaviotas
aprendiendo a volar como Juan Salvador.
Oigo su cuerpo caer en la piscina
o entrar, como un arco,
desde el barco en el mar.
Y las risas de los amigos
encendiendo bengalas.
Fue la vida el verano
y después fue el otoño,
atormentado por los barcos fantasmales
que cruzan la memoria.
Alguien retira flores marchitas
del cuarto de los invitados
y me parece que se van los coches,
agitando pañuelos
y haciendo sonar la grava del camino.
Se muere el mar de otoño,
pero aquel verano fue la vida.
Me enamoré en verano y fue la vida.
Y ha vuelto el verano.
Aunque no pensaba conseguirte nunca:
una palabra, un acercamiento,
y nada mas…..
Pero nosotros, los poetas,
a veces con intensidad de pensamiento,
y ciertamente solo por poco tiempo,
creamos un placer que puede ser casi real.
Eso pasó aquel verano,
y tu lo percibiste, me parece.
Eso era muy necesario porque
tenía que mirar también tus labios,
tenia que sentir también tu cuerpo.
Y ha vuelto el verano,
el verano, como el sol, siempre vuelve.
Y encontré Itaca, encontré tu cuerpo.
¡Oh my God!
¡Y fué el Big Bang!

de Manuel Gandarias Carmona Publicado en Nube



The Three Biggest Issues In Spain You Need To Be Watching

Mamta Badkar | Jun. 21, 2012, 3:01 PM | 515 |


Markets failed to rip after Spain secured a €100 billion bailout for its banking sector. 

That was in large part because they were still waiting the results of private sector audits of Spanish banks.

Well those results are in. Spanish banks could need €62 billion in capital a black sky event.

CLSA analyst Christopher Wood writes that there a few reasons everyone is still concerned about Spain.

Spanish insistence that this is  a ‘limited’ bailout

No one believes Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy’s explanations that the latest bailout is one of just the country’s banking sector and not the country itself. This is in large part because the LTROs served to make Spanish banks even more intertwined with sovereign credit.

Spanish banks increased their holdings of Spanish government bonds by €83 billion as a result of the LTRO. From Wood:

“It is clearly an intellectual absurdity to make a distinction between a country’s economy and its banking sector. Yet that is what the Spanish leader, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, has in effect been doing.

If a country’s banking sector is sick, so is its economy.

There are about €1.8tn of loans in the Spanish banking system amounting to 170% of GDP. Assuming, say, a default rate of 24% as in Ireland, which is not completely absurd, this would mean losses of €430bn or 40% of GDP. It should also be noted that Spanish banks now hold about one-third of Spanish sovereign debt.”

Moreover, many doubt that €100 billion will be enough to save Spanish banks.

Subordination of private bondholders

Credit markets in particular are concerned that holders of Spanish government bonds will be subordinated, if money comes from the EFSF or the yet to be created European Stability Mechanism (ESM) i.e. official bodies will get preferential treatment over private creditors.

This isn’t “sending out a message to buy Spanish government bonds, which is why non-Spanish buyers have continued to shun the market,” writes Wood. And any preferential treatment doled out to Spain, with regards to their bailout, against the severe conditions forced on Greece, Ireland, and Portugal will cause problems in the periphery.

Corporate deposit flight

Finally, Wood says that investors should keep an eye on corporate deposits, because while they do form a smaller portion of total deposits than say household deposits, they have acted as a lead indicator for deposit trends.

Spanish bank deposits by non-financial corporations fell 16 percent since June 2011 to the end of April, while household deposits were only down 4 percent in that period.

“The experience in the Eurozone crisis thus far is that corporates are a lead indicator for deposit trends since they are quicker to understand the grim realities of the situation than households which, in the case of Spain, were so divorced from reality that retail depositors were willing to buy the ill-fated IPO of Bankia as recently as in July 2011; when that bank’s management decided cynically to pitch the IPO to domestic retail investors once it became self-evident after roadshows that institutional investors globally were not going to buy the deal.”

Wood says the lack of market exuberance highlights the fact that markets want “ECB debt monetization now”, and not just a Spanish admission of problems in its banking sector.

de Manuel Gandarias Carmona Publicado en Nube



ECHH: These Posters Of The Pope, Obama And Merkel Kissing Are Officially The ‘Best’ Ads In The World

Jim Edwards | Jun. 21, 2012, 10:01 AM | 4,848 |
Business Insider

obama chavez benettonThe Cannes Festival of Creativity has awarded its coveted Grand Prix award to a set of posters from Benetton that show Photoshopped images of world leaders—the Pope, Obama, Merkel, Netanyahu, etc.—making out with each other.

The ads carry the headline “Unhate,” which fits with Benetton’s vague liberal positioning that favors peace (and colorful knits) over war. The campaign supported Benetton’s Unhate Foundation, which promotes an end to bigotry.

The ads are deliberately controversial, and received mixed reviews within the ad industry when they were released last year—many people feel that Benetton’s button-pushing shockvertising (it’s been doing this sort of thing for decades) is getting rather old.

In fact, the Vatican sued Benetton for using the Pope’s image; the case was settled and the ad was withdrawn.

Judge for yourself.

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de Manuel Gandarias Carmona Publicado en Nube