|Lunes 11 de junio de 2012|
Ni una sesión ha durado el esperado efecto alcista del rescate financiero. La confirmación de las ayudas para recapitalizar la banca española parece que no convence a los inversores. La euforia inicial, que llevó al Ibex a ganar casi un 5% hasta superar los 6.900 puntos, ha ido desapareciendo al tiempo que avanzaba la sesión y la prima de riesgo escalaba posiciones. La rentabilidad del bono español ha subido hasta superar el 6,50% frente al 6,02% que marcó a primera hora de negociación. Las dudas no se despejan: algunos analistas hablan de un segundo rescate, mientras las miradas permanecen atentas a las elecciones griegas del próximo domingo. El Ibex se ha dejado más de 440 puntos desde los máximos intradía para cerrar en los 6.516,40 tras un recorte del 0,54%.
JPMorgan On Spain: There’s No More Room For Error Here
JP Morgan’s European bank analysts Jaime Becerril and Axel Finsterbusch outline the major consequences of the 100bn euro Spanish bailout announced over the weekend.
Three points stood out:
- Structural reforms could have to accelerate following the bailout. A bailout will most likely mean Spain will have to bring forward measures expected for 2013, such as increasing VAT, reforming the labour market (again) or going further with regional integration. There’s no more room for error here and even if the EU doesn’t increase the pressure here we expect the markets will, especially considering the increase in sovereign debt resulting from the bailout.
- We see a material risk that Spain is eventually forced to see a full bailout. The impact of the higher sovereign debt as a result of a bank bailout will determine whether a full bailout for the economy can be avoided. Our credit colleagues consider the current bank bailout will eventually lead to a full aid program, especially if Syriza wins the 17 June Greek elections.
- There will be subordination for Spanish sovereign and bank debt. Given the money will be received via the FROB (a public entity) it will add onto the sovereign debt, subordinating the existing debt and increasing the Debt/GDP.
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ZERVOS: This Spain Deal Is Major, And It Should Make The Market Surge
Jefferies’ strategist David Zervos is very bullish on the Spain deal.
His new note, titled Black Swan Down – Viva La Espana, hits on a lot of the same ideas that we touched on here in our original take on the announcement.
This is his key point:
First and foremost it is a BANK bailout, not a state bailout. It is early days but maybe, just maybe, European officials have finally figured out that separating state financing from bank financing is important. I don’t want to get too excited, but it really does seem like they might finally understand that what they forced the Irish people was one of the greatest policy errors of all time! If so, it is a major change in crisis dynamics and a major step towards creating some form of financial union.
Note that this is being disputed by some, who say that ultimately this is still a sovereign bailout, and not only a sovereign bailout but one where the money is senior to other debtholders.
He goes on to note some of the other beneficial features, such as the huge size of the deal and the lack of conditionality.
And as for market reaction:
I’m sure these are not the last words on Spanish banks or the sovereign debt crisis. The ups and downs will continue, and in another week we will have to deal with Prime Minister Tsipras. Greece is still likely to exit and there will surely be further turmoil! Its not a one way ticket to risk on heaven (which is why we always hold onto those blue eurodollars), but come Monday morning, I would expect we see a +25pt spoo day as markets digest this new and improved BANK bailout.